X-Ray Spectral Curvature of High-frequency-peaked BL Lac Objects: A Predictor for the TeV Flux

Most of the extragalactic sources detected at TeV energies are BL Lac objects. They belong to the subclass of high-frequency-peaked BL Lac objects (HBLs) exhibiting spectral energy distributions with a lower energy peak in the X-ray band; this is widely interpreted as synchrotron emission from relativistic electrons. The X-ray spectra are generally curved and well described in terms of a log-parabolic shape. In a previous investigation of TeV HBLs (TBLs) we found two correlations between their spectral parameters. (1) The synchrotron peak luminosity Lp increases with its peak energy Ep and (2) the curvature parameter b decreases as Ep increases. The first is consistent with the synchrotron scenario, while the second is expected from statistical/stochastic acceleration mechanisms for the emitting electrons. Here, we present an extensive X-ray analysis of a sample of HBLs observed with XMM-Newton and Swift but undetected at TeV energies (UBLs), to compare their spectral behavior with that of TBLs. Investigating the distributions of their spectral parameters and comparing the TBL X-ray spectra with that of UBLs, we develop a criterion to select the best HBL candidates for future TeV observations.