How abundant is a species at the limit of its distribution range? Crested porcupine Hystrix cristata and its northern population

The crested porcupine (Hystrix cristata) is a rodent present in Africa and southern Europe (Italy exclusively). The Italian population is expanding from the centre to the north and south, but little is known about the species' abundance. Reliable population density estimates are important for monitoring trends in wildlife populations and for developing effective conservation and management strategies. In this context, we aimed to first report crested porcupine population density on the northern limit of its current distribution range using a non-invasive approach. Specifically, we randomly placed 38 camera traps in an area of 242 km2 in north Italy (Lombardy region), and we applied camera trap distance sampling. We estimated a porcupine density of 0.49 ind·km−2 (±0.33, standard error). The results presented here are the first crested porcupine density estimate accounting for imperfect detection (i.e. species present but not detected). The abundance estimate reported here is fundamental for a better understanding of the species status in Europe and for implementing conservation and management plans.