Finanziamento UE – NextGenerationEU PRIN 2022 PNRR - SVeBio Statistics for vegetation biodiversity: estimation and mapping - PNRR M4C2 investimento 1.1 Avviso 1409/2022

The biodiversity decline is a primary concern. In Italy, the evidence of the problem is now so widely and urgently perceived that in February 2022 the Parliament approved two articles of its Constitution Chart (9 and 41) to introduce the central role of biodiversity as a constitutional value that deserves specific protection for public interest. Vegetation plays a crucial role in biodiversity, as it influences almost every facet of the biophysical world and is an integral part ofecosystem composition, function, and structure, so that the conservation of biodiversity is, in turn, utterly dependent on the conservation of vegetation biodiversity. Also the Habitats directive (92/43/EEC) requires the EU member states to conserve habitats and species and to assess their conservation status every 6 years. Therefore, the geographical depiction of the spatial pattern of habitats, biodiversity indexes or other attributes of interest is essential for performing effective conservation strategies and halting biodiversity decline. SVeBio perfectly fits in this objective, aiming to develop innovative and efficient methods for estimating totals and construing wall-to-wall maps to assess and monitor vegetation biodiversity. More precisely, SVeBio will provide MODEL-BASED and MODEL-ASSISTED methods for producing SPATIAL MAPS by exploiting data available from probability sampling surveys, purposive field campaigns and remote sensing information. In the model-based framework, mapping is usually performed by using multiple data sources, while, in a model-assisted setting, methodological investigations for producing wall-to-wall maps by integrating purposive data with probability and remote sensing data are completely lacking and will be developped in this project. Furthermore, for the first time, the use of model-based predictions as proxies for the model-assisted interpolation will be investigated. This combined/hybrid strategy should take advantage of the strength of both approaches. Importantly, all the maps will be equipped with an uncertainty evaluation. In addition, the joint exploitation of multiple data sources will be addressed to develop theoretical advances in TOTAL ESTIMATION. Moreover, because the total estimates will invariably differ from those achieved by the produced maps as the sum of estimated/predicted values, SVeBio aims to investigate harmonization procedures able to rescale maps in such a way that the total arising from maps will match the total estimates. Finally, SVeBio will focus on two relevant and vulnerable repositories of biodiversity: FORESTS and COASTAL SAND DUNES. It is worth noting that the statistical tools provided by SVeBio can be exploited in many additional disciplines, such as geology, climatology, sociology and economics. The different expertises of team members and their documented collaborations with environmental researchers and policy makers ensure that SVeBio will have a clear societal impact.